BERNOULLI, Jacob. Ars conjectandi, opus posthumum. Accedit Tractatus de seriebus infinitis, et Epistola Gallicè scripta De ludo pilae reticularis.
Basel: Impensis Thurnisiorum Fratum, 1713.

First edition of the “establishment of the fundamental principles of the calculus of probabilities” (Grolier/Horblit). Bernoulli’s posthumous treatise was edited by his nephew and is considered the first significant book on probability theory. The title refers to conjectandi, or ‘casting’ as in the casting of dice. The Ars conjectandi “was the first systematic attempt to place the theory of probability on a firm basis and is still the foundation of much modern practice in all fields where probability is concerned-insurance, statistics and mathematical heredity tables” (PMM). The work is divided into four parts: the first a commentary on Huygens’ De ratiociniis in aleae ludo (1657), the second a treatise on permutations and combinations (the former Bernoulli’s own term), the third an application of the theory of combination to various games of chance, and the final, and most important, part which contains Bernoulli’s philosophical thoughts on probability - as a measurable degree of certainty, necessity and chance, of moral versus mathematical expectation, and of a priori and a posteriori probability. It also contains his theorem, an application of probability to statistics.

PMM 179; Dibner, Heralds of Science, 110; Evans, First Editions of Epochal Achievements in the History of Science, 8; Grolier/Horblit, One Hundred Books Famous in Science,12; Sparrow, Milestones of Science, 21; Barchas, The Making of Modern Science, 46; Norman 216; Honeyman 291.

4to: 180 x 145 mm. Old vellum. Fully complete; pp. [IV], 306; 35, [1:errata] and three folding tables. Some worm holes and paper flaws professionally repaired throughout (minimally affecting the text), some browning and foxing.